Although Bitcoin has seen a parabolic rally since September, it has stagnated and it is difficult for BTC/USD to break through the all-high zone. This level of BTC price below $20,000 was associated with decreased volatility and volume, making forecasting the path of the next move extremely challenging. Let’s take a look at the critical stages where volatility might be predicted on the lower time frames.
The ranges that have been established are now $19,400 to $19,600 and $18,400 to $18,600. The $19,400-$19,600 range is the sector of resistance, since it is unlikely for the price to cross this hurdle. Buyers, on the other hand, are stepping into the $18,400-$18,600 area, which serves as the lower bound of the current range.
Bulls can claim that there is a stable, higher-level system in progress. Around the same time, bears can argue that the lower time frames are continuously creating lower highs. These arguments are the reason why traders in the short term are ambivalent about where the market is going. But what can be expected is heavy volatility once either of these levels is broken.
There is a possible bearish divergence, which would be confirmed once Bitcoin’s price drops below $18,500. In addition, if such a decline happens, the 21-day Moving Average (MA) will be lost as critical support that has remained intact during the present uptrend.
A more downside is possible if the price of Bitcoin declines below the 21-day MA, with the nearest reasonable support zone reaching $16,000. This is a critical everyday area that has already been tested as support once.In fact, as BTC grinds its way up to the all-time high, this region may become very important in the coming months. This is because a move like this will be somewhat close in 2016 to the bull market cycle.